The crypto industry faces mounting uncertainty ahead of a Sept. 15 Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, with growing skepticism that the market-structure bill will become law this year. Bitcoin traded at $78,646.05, down 0.28% over 24 hours, as prediction markets priced a sharp gap between a likely Senate process vote and unlikely enactment of the measure, formally H.R. 3633. Polymarket’s contract, with more than $11.5 million in volume, implies only a 13–14% chance the bill becomes law in 2026, down from 82% in February, while Kalshi assigns about a 91% chance of a Senate vote before October 1 but only roughly 22% odds of passage; Galaxy Research has cut passage odds to 10%. The bill would establish a federal regulatory framework for digital assets, divide oversight between the U.S. SEC and the CFTC, and include registration and anti-money-laundering requirements. Its original timeline slipped after the Senate failed to hold a vote before the August recess. Main sticking points now center on allowing interest on stablecoins and ethics clauses tied to President Donald Trump and his family’s crypto business activities, alongside unresolved fights over Section 604 DeFi developer protections. At the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, SALT CEO John Darsie said he was personally somewhat pessimistic and that the bill was unlikely to pass ahead of the midterm elections. Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned that if the CLARITY Act does not pass before the midterms and Democrats take control of the House, regulatory conflict between Congress and the administration could continue for a prolonged period. Republicans hold 53 seats and still need roughly seven Democratic votes for the 60-vote cloture threshold, with Sens. Hawley and Paul expected to vote no. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong remains publicly rather optimistic about clearing 60 votes, but market pricing and industry commentary remain far more cautious.