Musk-backed theory does not prove Bitcoin is safe from quantum computers

  • Elon Musk endorsed a quantum theory later presented as evidence that Bitcoin is quantum-safe.
  • 835 logical qubits are estimated to be required to break Bitcoin signatures.
  • IBM plans a 200-logical-qubit machine by 2029, while developers discuss post-quantum migration.

Elon Musk’s five-word response to a post about Oxford physicist Tim Palmer’s quantum theory was recast by crypto traders as evidence that Bitcoin is already safe from quantum attacks. Musk agreed that the universe consists of fixed chunks but did not mention Bitcoin, private keys or cryptography. Palmer’s theory says quantum machines could stall at 200 to 400 qubits and never exceed 1,000, contrary to conventional quantum theory. A July study reduced the estimated requirement for breaking Bitcoin signatures with Shor’s algorithm to 835 logical qubits, from earlier estimates of 1,098 and 1,175. IBM plans a 200-logical-qubit machine by 2029, while Bitcoin developers are already discussing a post-quantum migration. BTC was near $78,449 after gaining 1.17% over 24 hours, and the source identifies around 2029 as the key test period.

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