China private manufacturing PMI rises to 51.5 from RatingDog/S&P Global survey as official manufacturing stays below 50

  • China private manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August.
  • Index rose 0.6 points to 51.5, beating 51.0 expectations and marking nine consecutive months above 50.
  • New orders grew for 15th month; official manufacturing PMI stayed below 50.

China's private manufacturing sector strengthened further in August, with the seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers' Index jointly released by S&P Global and RatingDog climbing to 51.5, up 0.6 points from July's 50.9 and beating market expectations of 51.0. The index has held above the 50 threshold for nine consecutive months, the longest expansion streak in five years. New orders grew for a 15th consecutive month, the longest expansion run since 2018, while new export business expanded at the fastest pace in six months, particularly in consumer goods. Output rose for a ninth straight month at the strongest rate since May. RatingDog founder Yao Yu stated that the pace of manufacturing expansion quickened in August, with demand, output, and exports all gaining momentum. Faster new order growth and robust export expansion sent positive signals, but the first reduction in output prices reflected persistent competitive pressures. Employment remained stable while inventories continued to accumulate, with expectations that the manufacturing PMI would remain in expansion territory in the near term. Notably, August data revealed clear structural divergence, with input price inflation accelerating for the first time since April on rising raw material costs yet manufacturers cutting output prices for the first time this year amid competition. Purchasing activity rebounded, growing at the fastest pace in four months, as input inventories rose for a ninth consecutive month, the longest sustained run since 2006-2007, and finished goods inventories increased at the fastest rate since September 2025. This private PMI contrasts with the official manufacturing PMI continuing to contract, underscoring uneven recovery amid property sector challenges and weak domestic demand.

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