Australia 10-year bond yield tops 5.1% as RBA hike odds climb

  • Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5.1% amid a global bond selloff.
  • Markets priced a 54% chance of an RBA increase to 4.60% on September 29.
  • Core inflation remained 3.6% despite forecasts for slower second-quarter economic growth.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5.1% to a five-month high as a global bond selloff intensified. U.S. Treasuries led the decline amid concerns about American budget deficits and debt levels, while Australian bonds faced additional pressure from expectations that interest rates may need to stay elevated to contain inflation. Markets now see a 54% chance of a 25-basis-point Reserve Bank of Australia increase to 4.60% on September 29, up from 10% a week earlier, and a 40% probability of a further move to 4.85%. The more hawkish outlook comes despite signs of weaker second-quarter momentum, with net exports and government spending pointing to slower activity. Wednesday’s GDP report is expected to show quarterly growth of 0.3% and annual growth slowing to 1.8% from 2.5%. Core inflation remains high at 3.6%, keeping pressure on the RBA to raise rates again. Earlier market pricing had put September hike odds at 52%, with a November increase fully priced.

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