Barclays now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September and December, reversing its previous forecast that rates would remain unchanged for the rest of the year. The revised outlook followed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium that inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target, financial conditions were not restrictive and the labor market was consistent with full employment. Warsh said policymakers would have work to do if they lacked confidence that inflation was returning to target. Barclays described the speech as notably hawkish, while noting that Warsh continued to oppose explicit forward guidance. The brokerage said monthly inflation readings could be much softer than longer-horizon measures, but unfavorable base effects could hinder progress through year-end. Markets were pricing a 60.4% chance of a September rate hike, with investors awaiting the Fed’s September 16 policy decision.