Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 710 per ton in early September after reaching a one-month high, as expectations for stronger second-half supply outweighed seasonal optimism about Chinese construction demand. Global iron ore shipments rose by 2.73 million tons week-on-week to 35.72 million tons from August 24-30, although arrivals at 47 Chinese ports fell by 7.66 million tons to 19.52 million tons. BMI expects global iron ore production growth to accelerate to an average of 2.2% annually from 2026 through 2030, lifting annual output to 3.04 billion tons by 2030, compared with 1.2% annual growth over the previous five years. The broader industrial-metals outlook weakened as surging oil prices increased inflation risks and strengthened expectations of imminent interest-rate hikes, with higher borrowing costs potentially slowing global growth and reducing metals demand. Earlier, steel rebar futures had risen above CNY 3,140 per ton, their highest level since mid-June, on expectations of stronger demand before China’s September peak construction season. The National Development and Reform Commission reportedly urged local governments to accelerate major-project construction, but China’s non-manufacturing PMI remained at 49.0 in August, while property-sector regulatory changes pressured smaller developers. Chinese blast furnace operating rates and daily hot metal output also declined last week, and higher coking coal costs squeezed steel mill margins.