Goldman Sachs has more than doubled its diesel refining-margin forecasts for next year, citing refinery attacks and shipping risks linked to conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine war. The bank expects margins of $63 per barrel in the United States and $49 in the European Union, compared with previous forecasts of $27 and $19. Global refinery outages are 60% above seasonal norms, while refined-product inventories continue to fall despite some demand destruction. Persian Gulf refined-product exports are running at about 40% of pre-war levels, versus 70% to 80% for crude. Russia’s diesel export ban through September, recovering Brazilian demand, and rising Northern Hemisphere heating-oil consumption could add to supply pressure. Brent has gained nearly 50% this year to around $91 a barrel, while European diesel futures have more than doubled. Shell CEO Wael Sawan described the market as facing a triple threat from Russian refinery attacks, Persian Gulf shipping risks and the Red Sea crisis; TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said no refined products were moving through the Strait of Hormuz despite some crude tanker traffic.