Bitcoin developers pursue post-quantum upgrade as quantum-safety claims face scrutiny

  • Bitcoin developers are discussing a post-quantum soft fork and migration path for coins vulnerable to future quantum attacks.
  • A July study estimated that 835 logical qubits could break Bitcoin signatures with Shor’s algorithm, down from estimates of 1,098 and 1,175.
  • Palmer’s 200-to-400-qubit limit and Musk’s comments do not prove Bitcoin is safe; IBM plans 200 logical qubits by 2029.

Bitcoin developers are discussing a post-quantum soft fork, or backward-compatible rule change, to protect the network from future quantum computers, while recent claims that Bitcoin is already safe remain unproven. Elon Musk’s August 29, 2026 response to Oxford physicist Tim Palmer’s theory addressed the universe’s structure, not Bitcoin, private keys, or cryptography. Palmer argues that quantum machines may stall at 200 to 400 qubits and never exceed 1,000, but conventional quantum theory imposes no such ceiling. A July study lowered the estimated requirement for breaking Bitcoin signatures with Shor’s algorithm to 835 logical qubits, from earlier estimates of 1,098 and 1,175. IBM plans a 200-logical-qubit machine by 2029, providing a future test of the competing claims but remaining below the estimated attack threshold. Bitcoin currently relies on elliptic curve digital signatures, and coins at addresses with previously exposed public keys, including early pay-to-public-key outputs, would face greater risk from a sufficiently capable quantum computer. Developers are considering larger post-quantum signatures and a years-long migration process; the proposal remains subject to review, testing, and rough-consensus debate. Bitcoin traded at $78,115 on August 31, 2026, down 0.2%, while BTC was near $78,449 after a 1.17% 24-hour gain in the newer report.

The information on this website is generated using AI and we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Please use it as reference information only.