Polymarket says controls are ready as U.S. midterms test prediction markets

  • Polymarket says surveillance systems can detect anomalous trading ahead of U.S. midterms.
  • Polymarket has referred more than 100 cases to law enforcement.
  • Allium estimated U.S.-linked wallets traded $571 million in political contracts.

Polymarket says it has strengthened trade surveillance and investigation systems ahead of the U.S. midterm elections as scrutiny intensifies over insider trading and American access to its international platform. Shana Bautista, the company’s global head of investigations and intelligence and a former FBI investigator and Coinbase analyst, told Reuters the firm combines machine learning, blockchain analytics, trade surveillance, open-source research and third-party services to spot anomalous activity. Polymarket says it has referred more than 100 cases to law enforcement, including a wallet linked to a U.S. soldier prosecutors say used classified information on Venezuela-related contracts that allegedly earned about $409,881 across 13 trades, and possible insider wagers tied to U.S. military actions in Iran. A federal judge in August paused a related CFTC civil case while a criminal proceeding continues; the defendant has pleaded not guilty. The company plans a public webpage on its market-integrity program and cooperation with authorities. Under its 2022 CFTC settlement, which included a $1.4 million penalty, Polymarket must keep U.S. customers off its international venue; Bautista said controls block the vast majority of American users. On-chain firm Allium estimated U.S.-linked wallets traded about $571 million in political contracts over a year, while cautioning the figures are directional. Congress has moved to restrict lawmakers’ participation, including a unanimous Senate vote in April and a push by Rep. Bryan Steil for a broader ban, and more than 40 Democratic lawmakers sought ethics guidance for federal employees. Polymarket separately re-entered the U.S. via a CFTC-registered exchange after regulators under President Donald Trump dropped a probe into the 2022 settlement, while states continue to sue over sports-related event contracts.

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