India GDP grows 7.8% in July-September quarter, beating market forecasts

  • India's GDP expanded 7.8% year-on-year in the July-September quarter.
  • Manufacturing grew 8.9%, accelerating from 5.2% in the prior quarter.
  • Construction rose 10.2% as private consumption increased 6.5%.

India's economy expanded 7.8% year-on-year in the July-September quarter of fiscal year 2024-25, beating market expectations of 7.1% and matching the April-June pace, National Statistical Office data showed. Manufacturing accelerated to 8.9% from 5.2% on lower input costs and firm domestic demand, financial, real estate and professional services grew 7.9%, construction jumped 10.2% on infrastructure outlays, private consumption rose 6.5%, and agriculture increased 3.5%, while gross value added advanced 7.6%. The broader backdrop is an emerging private investment revival that is broadening growth beyond consumption and government spending: investment rose 11.9% in April-June, lifting the share of gross fixed capital formation to 34.3% from 31.4% a year earlier, and bank credit grew at over 19%, the fastest pace in a decade, with industry credit up 20%. Public infrastructure plans of 12.2 trillion rupees and factory utilisation near 77% are drawing private capital into autos, renewables, defence, data centres and semiconductors, with global technology firms planning more than $40 billion of data-centre investment in India. Citi analysts called the real investment print the strongest since late 2018 outside COVID-period volatility, though weak job creation remains a pressure point and risks from oil prices, a weaker rupee and geopolitical tensions could still temper momentum.

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