European and British natural gas prices surged on Wednesday to their highest levels since 2023 as military escalation in the Persian Gulf and sharply reduced commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz intensified liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply risks. The Dutch front-month contract reached 74.32 euros per megawatt-hour and Britain’s NBP wholesale contract reached 183.95 pence per therm. The International Energy Agency has characterized the wider Middle East disruption as the largest oil supply disruption in history and is using emergency reserves. Prediction-market pricing assigns a 13% YES probability to crude oil reaching a new all-time high by December 31, above the 12.5% figure in the existing record. The effective restriction of Hormuz transit threatens roughly 20% of global seaborne LNG flows, mainly from Qatar, forcing European buyers to compete with Asian utilities for uncommitted Atlantic basin cargoes. European storage was approximately 62% full, below the five-year seasonal average, while heatwaves, Norwegian maintenance and delayed Qatari shipments constrained replenishment. A Reuters poll of 31 economists and analysts projected 2026 average Brent and U.S. crude prices of $85.08 and $80.20 a barrel, respectively, alongside a global oil-market deficit of 1.65 million to 3.5 million barrels per day. Weaker Chinese demand remains a downside risk, with July crude imports down 24.3% year over year. Prolonged disruption could raise European gas prices, create winter supply-rationing risks and complicate the European Central Bank’s policy outlook.