S&P 500 historical returns reach 685% 20 years after war begins

  • Charlie Bilello compiled historical S&P 500 returns across U.S. military conflicts.
  • 685% was the average S&P 500 return 20 years after conflicts began.
  • U.S.-Iran clashes involved strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory drone attacks in Jordan.

The escalating military conflict between the U.S. and Iran has unsettled markets in the short term, with Dow futures falling 0.16% and Brent crude rising 6.05% above $91 per barrel. Yet historical S&P 500 data compiled by Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, shows average returns increasing from 3% three months after a conflict begins to 12% after one year, 94% after five years and 685% after 20 years. Bilello says wars eventually end while the economy and corporate earnings tend to grow over time. Creative Planning's Peter Mallouk separately said debt-funded government spending is inflationary and can lift prices for stocks and other assets. The S&P 500 was up 12.44% in 2026, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 13.63% and the Dow Jones rose 10.70% year to date. On Friday, SPY fell 0.23% to $769.35, QQQ declined 065% to $716.43 and DIA slipped 0.03% to $535.06; in Monday premarket trading, the three ETFs were down 0.17%, 0.13% and 0.16%, respectively.

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