Polymarket puts Democrats above 50% chance of sweeping Congress in midterms

  • Polymarket’s Balance of Power market prices a 51% chance of a Democratic sweep.
  • Democrats hold 89% odds for the House and 51% for the Senate.
  • Republicans control both chambers ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Polymarket now gives Democrats a 51% chance of taking control of both the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm elections, up from 45% a month ago and 26% a year ago. The Republican Party currently controls both chambers. Democrats are favored to win the House with an 89% probability, while the Senate is priced at 51% in Democrats’ favor. The market, identified as Balance of Power, has shifted as President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 32% to 34% in some surveys. A Financial Times and FocalData poll found that most Americans believe their finances have worsened under Trump, including a majority of independents, while a Reuters and Ipsos poll showed Democrats narrowly leading Republicans on the economy, 37% to 36%. Rising energy prices are adding pressure, with the national average gasoline price reaching a record $4.056 per gallon in August, above the previous high of $3.940 set in 2022. Trump has defended the increase as necessary to push Iran toward denuclearization and has met with industry executives to pursue Venezuelan oil supplies.

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