The United States and Iran exchanged their most significant military strikes in months on September 1, ending roughly a month of relative quiet intended to support economic discussions. US Central Command struck dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) sites along Iran’s southern coastline near the Strait of Hormuz, including air-defense and communications systems, while reports said at least five civilians were killed and between 50 and 68 injured at a wedding gathering near Sirik. Iran retaliated with ballistic missile and drone attacks on US facilities in Jordan and Iraq, including 13 ballistic missiles directed toward Jordan, most of which were intercepted by US defenses. President Donald Trump warned that further retaliation would leave very little of the Islamic Republic of Iran and bring much harder US strikes. The escalation disrupted shipping and raised concerns about energy markets, while prediction markets increased the probability of a full Iranian airspace closure by December 31 to 28% from 24% in the previous 24 hours and priced a 2026 US-Iran reconstruction-funding agreement at 11% YES, down from 14% a week earlier.