Republicans face a threat to their 53-47 Senate majority in the November midterm election, with five of the six seats rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report held by the GOP. Only one of those seats is in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2024. Trump’s approval rating stands at 38% in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin polling average, after a series of surveys showed record lows amid growing fatigue with the Iran war and its economic impact. The president’s party typically loses ground in midterms because turnout is lower than in presidential elections and voters often use the contest to judge the administration’s agenda. Republicans regained Senate control in 2024 by flipping West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana after four years in the minority. Cook Political Report rates control of the chamber as a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored. Democrats hold an advantage in most polls of the generic congressional ballot (a survey asking which party voters prefer for Congress), while Republicans hold a 218-213 House majority. Democratic control of one or both chambers could constrain Trump’s agenda and trigger investigations, including probes into whether he used the presidency for personal enrichment.