About 43% of the world’s crude oil now comes from countries affected by armed conflict, with those nations producing roughly 45 million barrels per day in 2025, according to International Energy Agency data and Reuters calculations. The group includes Middle Eastern producers affected by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, as well as Russia, Kazakhstan, Libya and Venezuela. Gulf oil flows are currently disrupted by an estimated 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, while attacks near the Red Sea and Egypt’s Suez Canal have highlighted risks to alternative routes. Conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have also reduced global refining capacity by approximately 10%, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian facilities contributing to Moscow’s ban on gasoline and diesel exports. U.S. gasoline averaged $4.08 per gallon on Monday, while diesel reached $5.61, nearly 50% above pre-war levels. A Venezuela oil agreement announced by President Donald Trump on August 28 is unlikely to provide immediate relief because the country’s infrastructure requires billions of dollars in repairs. The agreement gives the U.S. majority control over roughly 65 billion barrels of proven reserves, but its funding, ownership and operating structure remain unresolved. Analysts say the global energy system has adapted through lower demand, strategic reserves, higher production in the Americas and rerouted Gulf shipments, but crude still costs $89 per barrel, 23% above its pre-war level. The report concludes that the loss of refining capacity, rather than crude prices alone, is keeping gasoline and diesel costs high.