Kevin Warsh marks 100th day with Fed policy review and seven-principle framework

  • Kevin Warsh announced a five-task-force review and presented a seven-principle monetary-policy framework at Jackson Hole on August 28.
  • PCE inflation was cited at 3.7% on a year-over-year or annualized basis and 4.1% over six months or semi-annually, while unemployment was 4.1%.
  • The review will retain the 2% inflation target, reduce reliance on forward guidance and reassess data, communications and balance-sheet policy.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his August 28 Jackson Hole keynote, marking his 100th day in the role, to announce a sweeping review of the central bank’s operations, models and analytical foundations while presenting a seven-principle framework for monetary policy. The review will use five task forces to examine the inflation framework, economic data, productivity and employment measurement, communications, and balance sheet policy. Warsh reaffirmed the 2% inflation target, emphasized short-term interest rates as the primary policy tool and signaled less reliance on forward guidance in favor of real-time, higher-frequency indicators. PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, was reported at 3.7% year over year or annualized, depending on the measure cited, and 4.1% over six months or semi-annually; unemployment was 4.1% and business capital expenditure was growing about 9% over four quarters. Markets viewed the remarks as hawkish but moderate, pricing elevated odds of a rate increase as early as September while leaving the outcome uncertain.

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