SpaceX mobile network could cost $50 billion to $130 billion, Bernstein says

  • Bernstein estimates SpaceX’s standalone mobile network would cost $50 billion to $130 billion.
  • The base case requires about $70 billion and 57,000 macro sites over eight years.
  • SpaceX plans to begin Starship launches for its Mobile V2 constellation in mid-2027.

SpaceX would need to spend $50 billion to $130 billion, including spectrum acquisition, to build a standalone mobile network capable of challenging T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon, according to a detailed Bernstein analysis led by analyst Douglas Harned. The analysts estimate that the terrestrial buildout alone would cost roughly $15 billion to $80 billion and require between 30,000 and 120,000 macro cell sites, depending on network quality and spectrum choices. Bernstein’s base case is a national network incorporating Grain’s low-band spectrum, costing about $70 billion and requiring 57,000 sites over approximately eight years. The report said SpaceX is still most likely to pursue a partnership, although the company continues to indicate that a terrestrial buildout is possible. SpaceX plans to begin Starship launches of its Mobile V2 satellite constellation in mid-2027. The analysis comes as the company’s second-quarter capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion, compared with estimates of about $6 billion, while JPMorgan analysts project $200 billion or more in capital spending during 2027 and 2028. Shares rose from an intraday low of $104.83 on Aug. 3 to $142 on Aug. 31 after a sharp post-IPO pullback, but investors remain focused on SpaceX’s spending, business scope and strategy.

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