Bitcoin traded around $77,700 at the end of August and had gained about 23% to 23.5% over the previous 30 trading days, but its early-September rally weakened after briefly reclaiming $80,000 for the first time since May and then falling below $77,000. CryptoSlate’s model, published at the Aug. 30 close using a $77,667 reference price, projects a September median of $81,319 for Sep. 29, implying a 4.7% gain, with estimates ranging from $72,502 at the 20th percentile to $91,049 at the 80th percentile. Kalshi traders now assign a 25% probability to Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026, while the odds of exceeding $109,999.99 before year-end have fallen to 12% and the odds of surpassing $129,999.99 stand at 5%. Spot Bitcoin ETF demand, which helped support the August advance, has weakened: reported outflows exceeded $220 million across two of three recent trading days, while a separate nine-day U.S. inflow streak totaling about $3.04 billion ended with $201.9 million of outflows on Aug. 28. Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and expectations for a September rate hike have also weighed on sentiment. CryptoSlate’s market signal remained bullish at 68 out of 100, but the wide forecast range and nearby $77,000 support level highlight continued volatility.