Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces a credibility test as markets increasingly price a 25-basis-point rate increase at the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Investors’ estimates vary by venue and timing, ranging from about 60% to 68%; Kalshi assigns the hike 59% odds versus 42% for no change on reported $31.3 million volume, while rate-cut odds have fallen to 1%. Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech said higher rates may be needed to curb inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, while President Donald Trump has called for lower rates despite roughly $40 trillion in U.S. government debt. A hike would reinforce Warsh’s inflation-focused guidance, whereas a hold could prompt reassessment of bearish positions across risk assets, including Bitcoin, depending on the accompanying policy language. August employment and consumer inflation data will arrive before the meeting.