JPMorgan sees 30,000-70,000 payroll range as key for markets before Fed decision

  • JPMorgan identified 30,000-70,000 monthly payroll gains as the most favorable market range.
  • Wall Street forecasts 53,000 August jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate.
  • CME FedWatch puts September rate-hike odds at 64.2%.

JPMorgan expects monthly U.S. job creation between 30,000 and 70,000 to represent the most favorable range for markets, while Wall Street forecasts 53,000 new jobs in August and an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate. An earlier estimate cited in the existing market outlook was 55,000 jobs, creating a discrepancy between forecasts. Stronger hiring could lift Treasury yields and inflation concerns, weighing on risk assets including cryptocurrencies, while a sharp miss could revive stagflation worries. JPMorgan considers upcoming U.S. CPI data more important than this week’s payrolls for determining expectations around the Federal Reserve’s September decision; CME FedWatch puts the probability of a September rate hike at 64.2%.

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