Yen pressured despite BOJ tightening as U.S.-Japan rate gap persists

  • The yen remained pressured even as BOJ data showed a faster-than-expected contraction in the monetary base and continued stimulus normalization.
  • The monetary base fell 15.7% year on year in August versus a 13.5% forecast; March household spending rose 0.4% monthly but declined 2.3% annually.
  • Core inflation stayed above the BOJ’s 2% target for more than a year, while traders watched U.S. yields, intervention risks near 150.00 and the late-October BOJ meeting.

The Japanese yen remained under pressure despite signs that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is accelerating normalization. BOJ data showed the monetary base contracted 15.7% year on year in August, exceeding the 13.5% market forecast, as reduced government-bond and other asset purchases and the expiry of pandemic-related lending facilities shrank the central bank’s balance sheet. The monetary base comprises currency in circulation and financial-institution reserves, and its contraction reflects quantitative tightening as the BOJ phases out large-scale asset purchases and yield curve control. However, the yen continued to be shaped by the wide U.S.-Japan interest-rate differential, elevated U.S. yields, Japan’s fiscal concerns and global market conditions. Reported sessions placed USD/JPY around 155.5 and 149.50, the latter a fresh low since late July. March household spending rose 0.4% month on month but fell 2.3% year on year, while core consumer inflation remained above the BOJ’s 2% target for more than a year. Traders are monitoring possible intervention near 150.00, a potential test of 152.00, Japanese fiscal announcements and BOJ communication ahead of a late-October policy meeting.

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