U.S.-Iran Strikes Keep Oil Above $90, Pressuring Gold and Risk Assets

  • U.S. strikes on IRGC positions and two Iranian government-owned tankers prompted Iranian missile and drone attacks on American bases across the Middle East.
  • WTI traded near $91 after a 9% three-session rally and Brent settled below $96 after topping $95, while South Korean gold fell 2.79% to 190,810 won per gram.
  • The escalation increased Strait of Hormuz supply risks, lifted the dollar and bond yields, and pushed September Fed hike odds to 67%-68% as markets awaited U.S. employment and inflation data.

U.S. strikes on Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps positions and two Iranian government-owned tankers, followed by Iran’s ballistic-missile and drone attacks on American bases across the Middle East, drove Brent above $95 and West Texas Intermediate near $91 before prices steadied. President Donald Trump said the renewed attacks might be short-lived while claiming the United States controls the Strait of Hormuz, but also warned that the United States would destroy Iran as a state if further attacks occurred. The energy shock revived inflation concerns, lifted Treasury and other government-bond yields and the dollar, pressured gold and broader risk assets, and raised the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at its September 15-16 meeting to about 67%-68%, from roughly 40% a week earlier. Domestic 99.99_1kg gold in South Korea fell 2.79% to 190,810 won per gram on the 2nd, more than 8% below 208,300 won on the 25th of the previous month. Crude prices were more than 30% above their late-February level, while diesel and other refined products had risen more sharply amid the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war.

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