Venezuela’s crude production is estimated at 1.1 million to 1.25 million barrels per day, or about 1.2 million barrels per day, after a modest increase associated with a recent US-linked agreement. Rystad Energy projects that returning to the historical peak of more than 3 million barrels per day could take several decades and require substantial investment. Venezuela’s complex extraction and refining requirements also limit its ability to quickly replace supplies disrupted by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Market pricing puts the probability of crude reaching a new all-time high by September 30 at 2.2%, down from recent levels. Investors will monitor US-Venezuelan relations, possible sanctions changes, Strait of Hormuz developments, Venezuelan capacity, OPEC decisions and statements from major energy officials. The material also promotes live prediction-market analysis powered by Vera and invites readers to sign up for the service.