US Treasury yields climbed sharply on August 31, with the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% to its highest level since January 2025 and the 30-year yield rising 5 basis points to around 5.26%. Oil prices rose nearly 3% after President Donald Trump threatened further military action against Iran, adding to inflation concerns. The move followed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks that financial conditions were not restrictive and that the likelihood of rate hikes was increasing; economists at Barclays and Societe Generale subsequently raised their rate forecasts. Markets are now focused on the August nonfarm payrolls report and September 11 CPI data ahead of the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Long-term yields are also facing pressure from September’s expected record $215 billion of investment-grade corporate issuance, including borrowing to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure. The 30-year yield had traded above 5% on 55 days through August 31, the most for that period since 2006, and reached 5.34% in mid-August, while Treasury buybacks and month-end index rebalancing may provide only limited support.