Lula's lead over Flavio Bolsonaro narrows to 1 point in Quaest poll

  • Lula leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated Brazilian presidential runoff.
  • 42% to 41% leaves Lula one percentage point ahead in the Quaest survey.
  • Quaest's Aug. 14 poll showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 43% to 40%.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leads Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 42% to 41% in a simulated second-round runoff, according to a Quaest poll commissioned by Globo. Lula's margin has narrowed from 3 percentage points in a previous Quaest survey released Aug. 14, which showed him ahead 43% to 40%. The latest result differs from an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll that placed Lula ahead 47.1% to 42.6%, and from a separate BTG Pactual/Nexus survey showing an even tighter contest. Lula is also facing political pressure over federal investigations into his eldest son, Fabio Luis Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha, involving alleged influence peddling and lobbying connected to medical cannabis programs and Health Ministry procurement. Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, faces separate scrutiny over alleged ties to Daniel Vorcaro in a major bank fraud investigation. Brazil's first-round vote is scheduled for Oct. 4, with a runoff three weeks later if no candidate wins an absolute majority.

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