Peter Schiff warns Treasury yields could rise far beyond 2007 levels

  • Peter Schiff said Treasury yields have entered a structural bear market with substantially higher levels ahead.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.78%, while Schiff cited 5.15%, 6.44% and 8.03% thresholds.
  • Charlie Bilello said national debt increased $715 billion since July 1 despite larger Treasury buybacks.

Veteran investor Peter Schiff said the Treasury market has entered a structural bear market, with yields likely to rise significantly beyond their highest levels since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.78% Monday, while another market reading put it at 4.75%, the highest since January 2025 and just below the 4.77% level that would mark the highest since 2007. Schiff said Treasuries were still in a bull market in 2007, when yields were declining, unlike the current environment. He identified 5.15%, the 2006 high, as the next threshold, followed by 6.44% from 1999 and 8.03% from 1994. Schiff contrasted the national debt of well under $5 trillion in 1994 with more than $40 trillion today. Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, said the debt had increased by $715 billion since July 1, even as the Treasury doubled buybacks of long-dated bonds to $4 billion per operation. Schiff said quantitative easing (central-bank bond buying) could slow the increase in long-term yields, but would risk more inflation and potentially higher yields later. The 30-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high this month, while a hawkish speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole lifted the probability of a September rate hike to 66.4%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Schiff said an 8% 10-year yield would push mortgage rates above 10%.

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