Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory is facing renewed scrutiny after reports from Finbold and U.Today on September 2 cited CryptoQuant on-chain data as indicating a possible early bear-market reversal. The reports did not identify the specific metrics behind the signal or establish that CryptoQuant had independently confirmed a sustained trend change. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost previously described an early balance between recovering demand and moderate selling pressure, with short-term-holder profit-taking rising slightly while UTXO spending remained contained. The developments have revived debate over whether Bitcoin’s historical halving-linked cycle remains reliable as institutional participation grows. Analysts caution that on-chain indicators can change quickly and generally require confirmation from exchange flows, futures positioning, spot demand and broader market behavior before being treated as a structural reversal.