A senior Iranian lawmaker said a renewed conflict with Iran would be costly for the United States, arguing that Washington’s objectives have shifted toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The remarks come after the 2026 U.S.-Israeli air war on Iran produced a fragile ceasefire. The strategic maritime chokepoint, which carries vital global oil and LNG flows, remains contested as both sides implement blockades. Market pricing indicates a reduced probability of a U.S.-Iran agreement that includes reconstruction funding, with the contract at 11.5% YES. Observers are focused on developments around Hormuz, maritime security and ceasefire discussions. U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif may influence the negotiations, while a maritime-security resolution could improve deal prospects and renewed military action or failed ceasefire talks could weaken them.