Russia expects crude oil production to fall by 17.2 million tonnes this year to 494.2 million tonnes, or 9.88 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2009, according to a government draft forecast seen by Reuters. The outlook, expected to be finalized at the end of September and used to prepare the budget, reduces oil production estimates for 2026-2029 by 16 million to 20 million tonnes from the previous forecast. Production is projected to recover to 500 million tonnes in 2026 but remain below 2025 levels through 2029. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, unplanned maintenance and export bottlenecks have reduced fuel output and contributed to gasoline shortages. Russia expects crude exports to rise to 244.7 million tonnes this year, mainly as fuel disruptions redirect supplies to China and India, before declining to 216.6 million tonnes in 2028-2029. Fuel exports are forecast to drop to 98.5 million tonnes this year after restrictions on diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel exports.