Global stocks and bonds fall together as oil, rate and fiscal pressures mount

  • Global stocks and bonds declined together as oil prices, rate expectations, fiscal deficits and debt issuance pushed long-term yields higher, while financial stocks gained in early trading.
  • The U.S. 10-year yield reached 4.821% before ending at 4.793%, Japan’s 30-year yield reached 4.155%, and JB Financial Group rose 6.06% to 32,400 Korean won.
  • A weak Japanese 30-year bond auction could intensify global fiscal concerns, although insurer demand and prior auction results offer support.

Global bond yields have climbed to multiyear highs, lifting borrowing costs for governments, companies and households as heavy debt issuance, an oil-price shock and expectations of tighter-for-longer monetary policy drive the sell-off. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has reached levels last seen since November 2023, Japan’s 10-year has held above 3%, Germany’s 10-year is at its highest since 2011 and UK gilts have hit a post-2008 peak, while stocks and bonds have fallen together under oil, rate and fiscal pressures. Refinancing maturing sovereign debt at higher rates is set to raise interest bills and strain public finances, with France singled out among developed markets for large deficits, elevated debt and limited political appetite for consolidation, and Japan highly sensitive given debt above 200% of GDP and debt service estimated at more than 25% of government expenses for fiscal year 2026. Leveraged companies, small-caps with floating-rate debt, commercial real estate, private-equity-backed firms and lower-income consumers face the greatest squeeze, while technology issuers funding AI infrastructure add to competition for capital. Equity markets have stayed relatively resilient on earnings and AI optimism, but higher yields make safer government debt more attractive and reduce the present value of future earnings. New bond buyers gain larger coupon payments that cushion further price declines; Deutsche Bank estimates 10-year Treasury yields could climb to about 5.5% over the next year before capital losses outweigh coupon income.

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