Japan's watch Big Three stocks surge, led by Seiko's 206% gain

  • Seiko, Citizen and Casio are experiencing a renewed stock-market rally in Japan.
  • Seiko shares rose 206% this year and reached ¥11,920 on the 1st.
  • Japan's 2025 watch exports grew, with mechanical luxury watches gaining share.

Japan's watch industry Big Three—Seiko, Citizen and Casio—are enjoying a renewed stock-market rally after years of being viewed as a declining sector. Seiko shares reached ¥11,920 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the 1st, their highest level in 36 years, and have risen 206% this year, compared with a 28% gain for the Nikkei average. Casio reached ¥2,536, a five-year high, while Citizen has gained 121% and touched ¥2,920 in the middle of last month. Seiko raised its consolidated net profit forecast for fiscal 2027, covering April 2026 through March 2027, to ¥28 billion, ¥5 billion above its previous guidance and 27% higher than the prior year. The companies are pursuing higher-value strategies: Seiko is expanding Grand Seiko and limited-edition collaborations, Casio plans to grow its Indian retail network to 130 locations by 2030 and local sales 2.5-fold from 2025 levels, and Citizen is benefiting from North American online sales and machine-tool demand linked to China's AI and semiconductor investment. Japan's watch exports grew in 2025, particularly to North America and Europe, while mechanical luxury watches gained share. Investors remain alert to stretched valuations and the contribution of the weak yen to reported earnings.

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