The Australian dollar held above $0.71 near its highest level in more than three months as resilient second-quarter growth and a still-solid July trade surplus strengthened expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia tightening. Australia’s goods trade surplus narrowed to A$1.9 billion in July from a revised A$2.3 billion in June, remaining above the A$1.45 billion consensus, with weaker gold exports and fuel imports driving the decline. Seasonally adjusted real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in April–June, matching forecasts and lifting annual growth to 2.1%, though GDP per capita was flat, personal consumption held at a 0.4% quarterly pace and manufacturing contracted 1.9% while mining and information and communications each grew 1.3%. Net exports supported GDP even as the current-account deficit widened to A$27.22 billion and fuel imports surged 42.5%. Markets lifted the odds of a hike this month to 58% from 49% before the GDP release and fully priced a move to 4.60% by November; source material describes the RBA as having raised rates three times this year and able to resume tightening, alongside earlier still-relevant context that the cash rate had been held at 4.35% since November 2023 while inflation stayed above the 2–3% target. Renewed fighting in the Gulf pushed oil prices higher and raised inflation concerns. Some earlier market accounts cited a stronger 0.9% quarterly and 3.4% annual GDP print with different currency reactions; those figures remain noted beside the softer ABS detail as investors watch inflation indicators and the next policy communications.