Korea’s private-education competition linked to 28% fertility shortfall, study finds

  • Yum Min-chul linked Korean private-education competition to lower fertility among women born from 1970 to 1975.
  • Women in that cohort averaged 1.92 children instead of an estimated 2.45 without status competition.
  • About 75% of Korean students take private classes, with low-income households spending 8.4% of income.

South Korea’s intense competition over private education may have reduced fertility by 28% among women born between 1970 and 1975, according to research presented at the 2026 BOK-CEPR-OECD Conference on the Economics of Population Ageing and Longevity. The study estimated that the cohort would have had an average of 2.45 children without the effect of status competition, compared with 1.92 actual births. About 75% of Korean students take private classes, with such spending consuming 8.4% of income for low-income households and 5.1% for high-income households. The research found that a 10% spending reduction among the top 15% of households would reduce the bottom half’s spending share by 0.4 to 0.9 percentage point. Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song said demographic change will affect productivity, potential growth and equilibrium real interest rates, but stressed that governments have time to prepare. The conference also examined the motherhood penalty, artificial intelligence and labor-market pressures in an aging economy.

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