Higher long-term U.S. Treasury yields are unlikely to retreat soon as inflation uncertainty, deteriorating government finances, heavy bond issuance and changing investor demand reinforce upward pressure on borrowing costs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is seeking to lower long-term rates, but bond investors say structural supply and demand forces are largely beyond the Treasury Department's control. Federal government debt has topped $40 trillion, while the market's term premium—the compensation investors seek for holding bonds over decades—has risen alongside inflation expectations. Overseas central banks and other official buyers have been replaced in part by hedge funds and price-sensitive firms, increasing sensitivity to bond supply and amplifying volatility. At the same time, Wall Street expects big tech companies to spend more than $730 billion on AI infrastructure this year, up from $400 billion last year, with much of that investment financed through borrowing. Strong corporate earnings and cash flow have made some investment-grade issuers more attractive to investors than the federal government, narrowing the spread between corporate and Treasury debt. S&P 500 company profits rose 52% in the second quarter, reaching 13.2% of GDP, a record share according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Investors also point to inflation uncertainty linked to energy prices and the unresolved conflict with Iran. Analysts say the market's changing structure has developed over decades, making it difficult for Bessent to reduce long-term rates without credible plans to address growing deficits and inflation above the Federal Reserve's target.