Polymarket’s GPT-6 release market assigns an 88% probability to a public launch by Sept. 15, 2026, up 45% over 24 hours, while the probability of a launch by Sept. 30 reached 90%, up 34%. The market settles as Yes if OpenAI makes GPT-6 publicly available before the specified 2026 deadline, including through a public test or open waitlist. Closed testing and private access do not qualify. A qualifying product must be explicitly named GPT-6, such as ChatGPT-6o, or be generally recognized as the next-generation model after GPT-5; products remaining within the GPT-5 series, including GPT-5.5, are excluded. Settlement will rely primarily on official OpenAI information, supplemented by credible media reports.