France’s deficit widens as 10-year borrowing costs reach 4.25%

  • France’s budget deficit reached €145.91 billion by the end of July 2025 as its 10-year yield rose to 4.25%.
  • The July deficit was €39.1 billion higher year on year, while debt interest is projected to rise from €65 billion in 2025 to €77 billion this year.
  • France’s 2025 budget law targets a deficit of 4.4% of GDP, against deficits of 5.5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024.

France’s budget deficit reached €145.91 billion by the end of July 2025, up €39.1 billion from a revised €106.8 billion a year earlier, while its 10-year sovereign yield climbed to 4.25%, above Italy’s and Greece’s and its highest level since 2008. The deterioration reflects weaker corporate and income-tax receipts, higher spending on social programs, debt interest and public-sector wages, as well as investor concern over France’s high public debt, persistent deficit and weak economic growth. The July figure covers the first seven months and does not include possible full-year budget adjustments or one-off measures, but it has raised doubts about meeting the 4.4% of GDP deficit target in the 2025 budget law. France’s deficit was 5.5% of GDP in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024, above the European Union’s 3% reference value. Refinancing maturing low-rate bonds at current market rates is expected to lift the annual public debt interest bill from about €65 billion ($75.4 billion) in 2025 to €77 billion ($89.3 billion) this year, above national education spending. The government has announced €20 billion in spending reductions, but further measures, possible tax increases, reduced subsidies or spending cuts may be needed. Credit-rating downgrades could raise borrowing costs further, although Crédit Mutuel chairman Daniel Baal said direct danger to savers and banks would arise only in a sovereign default, which he said is not the current situation.

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