SOX and KOSPI challenge the meaning of a 20% bear market

  • SOX and KOSPI entered bear markets under the traditional 20% decline measure.
  • The indexes remained up 46% and 25%, respectively, at their July troughs after triple-digit gains the previous year.
  • Analysts proposed considering decline duration, historical volatility and economic conditions, but no replacement definition has gained consensus.

The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index and South Korea’s tech-heavy KOSPI entered bear markets in July under Wall Street’s traditional definition of a 20% decline from a peak. Yet at their troughs, they were up 46% and 25%, respectively, for the year after triple-digit gains over the preceding year. The episode has prompted investors and strategists to question whether the standard label adequately describes highly volatile technology indexes that continue to post large daily gains and losses. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, called the terminology lazy for such volatile assets, while Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick said it is more suitable for broad markets than indexes following parabolic advances. Analysts said alternative measures could consider the duration of a decline, historical volatility, moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels, economic conditions and structural market forces. No replacement definition has gained consensus. The classification matters because bear-market language can influence investment decisions: S&P 500 bear markets have averaged 289 days, or about 9.6 months, since 1928, while the SOX and KOSPI rebounded after reaching their lows. LSEG-compiled data estimated that earnings for the S&P 500 semiconductors and equipment industry group would grow at least 114.7% this year.

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