Polymarket assigns a 17% probability that the United States will end its naval blockade of Iran by Sept. 30, down from 80% a month earlier. The probability of an end to the blockade by Oct. 31 fell to 36% from 87%, while the chance of a resolution by year-end 2026 declined to 60% from 90%. The market puts the odds of a final nuclear deal at 3% by Oct. 31 and 11% by year-end. The shifts came as President Donald Trump was reportedly considering declaring the conflict over, despite the presence of about 50,000 U.S. troops in the region and renewed strikes. Polymarket also previously assigned a 73% probability that a two-week ceasefire would begin by Sept. 30 under rules tied to qualifying U.S. military action against Iran.