CME FedWatch sees 62.2% chance of 25-basis-point hike by September

  • CME FedWatch estimates Federal Reserve rate outcomes for September and October.
  • 62.2% is the estimated September probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase.
  • October probabilities are 26.9% unchanged, 55.2% for 25 basis points, and 17.9% for 50.

CME FedWatch (a market-implied rate probability tool) puts the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged through September at 37.8%, compared with a 62.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase. For October, the probability of unchanged rates is 26.9%, while the chances of cumulative increases of 25 and 50 basis points are 55.2% and 17.9%, respectively. The figures were reported by PANews on Sept. 2.

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