Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said its forces struck 12 large Russian oil refineries in August, within at least 21 attacks on Russia’s refining infrastructure, the highest monthly total since Russia’s full-scale invasion began. The campaign contributed to Russian refining volumes falling to approximately 3.8 million barrels per day, a level not seen in more than two decades, while July oil export revenue fell to $13.8 billion, down $2 billion from June and the lowest monthly figure in six months. Weaker crude prices and repeated Ukrainian strikes that forced refineries offline contributed to the revenue decline. Gasoline production fell nearly 20% year over year in the first three weeks of August, diesel output declined more than 23%, and refined-product exports reached historical lows. Russia’s combined oil and gas revenue for the first seven months of 2026 fell 16.8% year over year to RUB 4.59 trillion, while its federal budget deficit reached RUB 6.45 trillion, or about 2.8% of GDP, exceeding the full-year 2025 deficit of RUB 5.63 trillion. The Kyiv School of Economics Institute projects 2026 Russian oil export revenue of $182 billion and estimates cumulative revenue losses linked to the invasion at $205 billion through July 2026, while warning that further forecast cuts are possible if strikes continue.