German Bund yields edge higher as markets price ECB hikes through 2027

  • Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 3.36% while the euro held above $1.16 on Friday.
  • Markets fully price a 25-basis-point ECB increase to 2.5% next week and expect the deposit rate to reach 3% by June 2027.
  • Germany’s July factory orders increased 2.5%, far exceeding the 0.3% forecast, as investors awaited US employment data and the ECB meeting.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield edged up to 3.36% on Friday after declining in the previous session, while the euro stabilized above $1.16 as investors awaited US employment data and the European Central Bank’s September 10 meeting. Money markets fully price a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase to 2.5% next week and assign almost a 100% probability to the deposit rate reaching 3% by June 2027, implying two further increases. Germany’s factory orders rose 2.5% in July, beating the 0.3% forecast despite slowing from an upwardly revised 3.7% increase in June. The dollar remained under pressure after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cited signs of disinflation and said he would favor leaving rates unchanged at this month’s meeting if upcoming data confirmed the trend. Eurozone inflation reached 3.3% year-over-year in August, while energy-driven inflation, elevated borrowing costs and fiscal concerns continued to weigh on European assets.

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