OPEC+ is expected to leave its October oil production policy unchanged at Sunday's online meeting of seven core members, with the alliance completing the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day cut program established in 2023. Another layer of production curbs remains in place for most members through the end of 2026, while actual output has lagged planned quota increases because conflicts involving Iran and Ukraine have disrupted export routes in the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan. Attention is shifting to 2027 production baselines. Texas-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton is assessing capacity for most members and is expected to submit its report to OPEC by the end of September, potentially setting up difficult negotiations before year-end. Iraq wants a higher quota and warned it could consider leaving OPEC if its capacity is not reflected. Venezuela is also considering an exit, following the UAE's formal departure in May. Analysts say further departures could weaken OPEC+'s cohesion and influence as US production and exports expand, while a full recovery in Persian Gulf flows could push the global oil market into surplus as early as 2027.