Markets are increasingly pricing a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, although reported probabilities vary by venue and measurement time. Kalshi prices the hike at 59% versus 42% for no change, with total market volume of $31.3 million, while other measures place the increase probability between about 60% and 68%. Odds of a rate cut have fallen to 1%. The repricing followed Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole emphasis on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, alongside Donald Trump’s criticism that U.S. interest rates were too high. A hold could prompt investors to reassess bearish positions if markets continue to expect a hike, but its impact on Bitcoin would depend on the accompanying policy guidance. A hold with softer messaging could be more supportive than one that keeps further tightening in view. Rising Treasury yields, stronger oil prices and declines in equity futures have added to the risk-asset pressure ahead of the meeting.