The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since November 2023 before easing slightly, allowing major domestic stock indexes to rise. Analysts cautioned that the reprieve may be temporary as markets assess whether long-term yields have further to climb. Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors said markets were pricing in 60 basis points of rate hikes through year-end, while the combined move in forward and long-term spot yields implied roughly 120 basis points over a longer horizon. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed a 66% chance of a quarter-percentage-point increase at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this month. Emons cited energy prices, tariffs, AI-related capital spending, heavy Treasury issuance and a stronger economy as drivers of yields. West Texas Intermediate futures traded around $90 a barrel, and Emons said oil near $100 could increase the chances of faster monetary tightening. Julia Hermann of New York Life Investment Management pointed to fiscal risk, a growing U.S. interest burden and uncertainty over the Fed's inflation strategy, while PNC's Yung-Yu Ma said higher rates could produce choppy equity markets unless a geopolitical breakthrough sharply lowered oil prices.