Trump signals lower oil prices while warning of another Iran attack

  • Former U.S. President Donald Trump said oil prices would decline while warning he was prepared to launch another attack on Iran.
  • The probability of crude reaching a new all-time high by September 30 fell to 1.8% from 3%, while 2026 deal-related odds also weakened.
  • Brent and WTI neared multi-week highs after U.S. strikes and Iranian reprisals, with reduced Iranian exports keeping geopolitical risk central to pricing.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed confidence that oil prices would decline, said the campaign concerning Iran would not be prolonged, and separately warned that he was prepared to initiate another attack on Iran. He called the latest U.S. strike on Iranian targets "justified" and warned of more significant action if Iran retaliates. Brent and WTI crude benchmarks approached multi-week highs amid Middle East tensions, while renewed U.S. sanctions have significantly reduced Iran’s crude exports. Prediction-market pricing shows that the probability of crude reaching a new all-time high by September 30 fell to 1.8% from 3% over the previous 24 hours. Related 2026 markets also show declining odds that Iran Reconstruction Funding or agreements limiting Iranian uranium enrichment will be included in a potential U.S.-Iran deal. Traders and observers are monitoring U.S. and Iranian communications, possible military escalation or diplomacy, sanctions policy, statements from Qatar and Pakistan, and production decisions by OPEC and other major producers. Vera provides live prediction-market analysis.

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