President Donald Trump said 18 million barrels of oil were moving through the Strait of Hormuz, near its pre-conflict norm, while independent tracking data showed substantially lower visible flows. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf exports have recovered to 15–16 million barrels per day, but visible data captures only about 10 million barrels, leaving an apparent 5 million-barrel daily gap as tankers disable Automatic Identification System transponders. After including dark-ship activity, Goldman estimates the net shock to Persian Gulf oil flows at about 7.9 million barrels per day. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has cited 19 million barrels on June 6 and more than 17 million barrels on a Monday in early September, while Vice President Vance said 15 million barrels came through in one night. Kpler recorded verified June peaks of 10 million to 11.9 million barrels per day and current estimates of 2 million to 8 million barrels, and TankerTrackers.com reported Arabian Sea outflows of 9.14 million barrels on Aug. 31 before estimated volumes fell to 6.81 million on Sept. 1 and 4.63 million on Sept. 2. The conflicting estimates affect views of supply disruption, inventories and inflation, with Saudi Arabia also facing pressure on both Persian Gulf and Red Sea export routes.