New Jersey escalates prediction-market dispute with Kalshi to Supreme Court

  • New Jersey asked Supreme Court to review Third Circuit ruling favoring Kalshi on sports contracts.
  • Ninth Circuit Aug. 28 sided with Nevada on sports contracts; Third Circuit April favored Kalshi.
  • Dispute over Dodd-Frank preemption of state gambling laws for CFTC event contracts; 45% chance of Supreme Court acceptance.

Robinhood Markets generated $156 million from event contracts in the second quarter, making prediction markets its second-largest revenue stream behind options and heightening the stakes of a widening legal fight over sports-related contracts. New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to resolve a nationwide clash after the Ninth Circuit on Aug. 28 ruled against platforms including Kalshi on state oversight of sports event contracts, contrasting with a Third Circuit decision from April that sided with Kalshi. The dispute asks whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state sports-gambling rules for contracts traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges. Attorney General Jennifer Davenport and Mary Jo Flaherty filed the petition on Sept. 2, with Justice Samuel Alito extending the deadline through Sept. 3. New Jersey argues the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act did not strip states of authority over sports bets. Kalshi maintains its contracts qualify as swaps under exclusive federal CFTC jurisdiction. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission withdrew a proposed event-contract rule and 2025 sports advisory on Feb. 4 and issued a prediction-market enforcement advisory on Feb. 25. A Polymarket market gives about a 45% chance the Supreme Court will accept the case by Dec. 31. Kalshi spokesperson Dani Lever said the firm disagrees with the filing and remains confident in lower-court rulings.

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