El Niño is firmly established and expected to intensify toward a very strong peak late in 2026, increasing risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, the World Meteorological Organization said. The WMO sees an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that the event will persist through February 2027, with impacts continuing into 2027. The Nino 3.4 index averaged 1.5C above normal from May to July 2026, reached 2C above normal in July and rose to approximately 2.2C to 2.6C above average in weekly readings between late July and mid-August. The WMO forecasts above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas in September-November 2026, while rainfall patterns are expected to respond to the strong Pacific warming. The severity of impacts will vary by region and season and may be altered by conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, including an expected positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a generally warm equatorial Atlantic. The International Organization for Migration is seeking $110 million to protect 4.9 million people through preparedness, early-warning systems and pre-positioned assistance. El Niño is a natural phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and is not caused by climate change.