September Fed hike odds fall below 50% after weak U.S. labor data

Sep 3, 2026 08:24 (19d ago)

Prediction-market pricing for a 25-basis-point September Fed hike fell to 49%, while a separate September 2026 contract declined to 46.5% from 58%.
August private payrolls rose by 38,000 and July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, signaling weaker U.S. labor-market conditions.
The August payrolls report is due September 4 ahead of the September 15-16 meeting, with inflation data and Fed communications also in focus.

Prediction-market pricing for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the September FOMC meeting fell to 49%, down 10% over 24 hours, after weak U.S. labor data. August private payrolls increased by 38,000, below expectations and the smallest gain since January, while July nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000. A separate market reference covering a September 2026 hike showed YES pricing falling from 58% to 46.5%, with year-end 2026 rate-cut pricing rising. Investors are focused on the August nonfarm payrolls report due September 4, inflation data and Federal Reserve communications, including Chair Jerome Powell, before reassessing policy expectations.